Model track record
Every prediction compared with the final score. The hits and the misses.
No hand-picked numbers: everything is recalculated automatically.
By confidence level
The higher the confidence, the more often the favorite should win.
Calibration
When Basketlog says 70%, the favorite should win about 7 times out of 10.
favorite's actual wins stated probability
Recent results 1322 games
94 - 90
SASA 56%✗106 - 107NYNY 59%✓115 - 111NYNY 59%✗105 - 104SASA 55%✗105 - 95SASA 56%✗111 - 103
OKCOKC 67%✗91 - 118SAOKC 54%✗114 - 127OKCOKC 68%✓130 - 93
CLENY 53%✓82 - 103SAOKC 55%✗121 - 108CLENY 52%✓123 - 108SAOKC 54%✓93 - 109NYNY 66%✓113 - 122OKCOKC 68%✓104 - 115NYNY 65%✓122 - 115OKCOKC 68%✗125 - 94
DETDET 65%✗117 - 113DETDET 64%✗
97 - 126SASA 68%✓
LAL
109 - 100
BOSBOS 78%✗
HOU
How this track record is calculated
For every completed game, we rerun the Basketlog model using only the results known before tip-off, then compare the predicted favorite with the actual winner. No information from the future is used.
Injuries aren't included in this track record, because the exact pregame list isn't always known. The predictions shown before games do factor them in, so they are slightly better informed than this track record.
The 2025-26 tab is a backtest on a full season already played, to judge the model on more than 1,000 games.
Basketlog is not a betting service. A good past track record does not guarantee future results.