Thunder vs Lakers prediction NBA · Monday, May 11
At a glance
The Los Angeles Lakers (57-34) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (71-18) on Monday, May 11 at 10:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 115 – Lakers 110. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 71% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Lakers are 30-15 at home and the Thunder are 33-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Lakers and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Lakers L3, Thunder W7).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Lakers have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Lakers 110 – 117 Thunder, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+0.9 vs +10.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (119.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCLAL
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #235pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5510reboundsLakers
Austin ReavesG · #1527pts / gameAustin ReavesG · #156assists
LeBron JamesF · #2312reboundsRecent form
OKCLALHead-to-head
OKC lead 4-0 this season.
LAL
Team comparison
| OKC | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 71-18 | Record | 57-34 |
| 119.4 | Points scored / game | 114.7 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 113.6 |
| +10.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.9 |
| W7 | Current streak | L3 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 33-10 road | Home / road record | 30-15 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 50-32 (+1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Lakers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.