Model track record
Every prediction compared with the final score. The hits and the misses.
No hand-picked numbers: everything is recalculated automatically.
By confidence level
The higher the confidence, the more often the favorite should win.
Calibration
When Basketlog says 70%, the favorite should win about 7 times out of 10.
favorite's actual wins stated probability
Recent results 68 games
103 - 87
LACLAC 58%✗OKC
96 - 120
DALOKC 82%✗SA
117 - 111
UTAHSA 79%✓NY
133 - 127
CHINY 72%✓HOU
132 - 100
MILHOU 75%✓GS
119 - 114
MINMIN 77%✗DEN
104 - 91
NODEN 61%✓ORL
99 - 129
TORTOR 70%✓MIA
129 - 117
ATLATL 71%✗WSH
111 - 121
CLECLE 84%✓CHA
89 - 97
DETDET 67%✓PHI
114 - 109
INDPHI 60%✓
136 - 129LALLAL 59%✗DET97 - 111NYDET 57%✗SAC
103 - 130SASA 92%✓BKN
124 - 125
BOSBOS 91%✓134 - 114DENDEN 74%✗MEM
110 - 105UTAHMEM 59%✓ATL110 - 120HOUHOU 60%✓IND102 - 110MILMIL 58%✓PHX
114 - 125OKCOKC 81%✓CHI99 - 134BOSBOS 86%✓DAL113 - 109MIAMIA 68%✗WSH103 - 110CHACHA 82%✓MIN125 - 127CLECLE 51%✓123 - 112SACMEM 63%✓DET106 - 93PHIDET 67%✓ORL111 - 102NYNY 73%✗TOR94 - 117MINMIN 57%✓LAC101 - 108OKCOKC 79%✓IND136 - 109BKNIND 52%✓LAL132 - 123UTAHLAL 74%✓How this track record is calculated
For every completed game, we rerun the Basketlog model using only the results known before tip-off, then compare the predicted favorite with the actual winner. No information from the future is used.
Injuries aren't included in this track record, because the exact pregame list isn't always known. The predictions shown before games do factor them in, so they are slightly better informed than this track record.
The 2025-26 tab is a backtest on a full season already played, to judge the model on more than 1,000 games.
Basketlog is not a betting service. A good past track record does not guarantee future results.