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Spurs vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Saturday, October 24

FinalAmerican Airlines Center · NBA League Pass, DAZN SAS, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

San Antonio Spurs

1-2 · away

Final score

122-106

Projected: 119-112

Dallas Mavericks

1-2 · home

71% win SAwin DAL 29%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin6.9

Projected total230

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (1-1) host the San Antonio Spurs (0-2) on Saturday, October 24 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 122 – Mavericks 106. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 71% chance to win: prediction correct. Since the start of the season: 1-1 for the Mavericks and 0-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Mavericks W1, Spurs L2).

The analysis Model

The Spurs are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 112 – 119 Spurs, a margin of about 6.9 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks and the Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +5.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -4.1 / SA +5.1 per game

-9.2

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-6.9

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

27%

Spurs win by 10+

40%

Stat comparison Current season

SADAL

118.0

Points scored / game

114.3

112.0

Points allowed / game

119.2

46.0 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

78.3 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

28.2

Assists / game

27.6

9.8

Steals / game

9.0

6.6

Blocks / game

7.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Top performers

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #123pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #49assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #17rebounds

Mavericks

Sergio de LarreaF · #5521pts / game

Marcus SasserG · #85assists

Daniel GaffordF · #219rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

No games played yet.

DAL

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Team comparison

SA		DAL
0-2	Record	1-1
118.0	Points scored / game	114.3
112.0	Points allowed / game	119.2
+5.1	Adjusted margin / game	-4.1
L2	Current streak	W1
0-2	Last 10 games	1-1
0-0 road	Home / road record	0-0 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
Yes	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Spurs

No injuries reported.

Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.