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Mavericks vs Spurs prediction NBA · Friday, March 19

Fri, Mar 19 · 8:00 PM ETFrost Bank Center · NBA TV, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

108-119

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · home

17% win DALwin SA 83%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin11.7

Projected total227

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The San Antonio Spurs (3-2) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Friday, March 19 at 8:00 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 83% chance to win and projects a 108-119 score (Mavericks – Spurs), about 227 total points. This season, the Spurs are 1-2 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Spurs and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Spurs W3, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 20% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Spurs played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Tobias Harris (Spurs) and Jayden Quaintance (Spurs). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Spurs start with a clear edge. The model projects Spurs 119 – 108 Mavericks, a margin of about 11.7 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Spurs played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+6.6 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Spurs

Team strength (adjusted point differential)SA +6.6 / DAL -2.8 per game

+9.4

Home-court advantageSpurs at home

+2.3

Back-to-backSpurs played yesterday

-1.6

InjuriesSA: 2 out, 0 questionable · DAL: 3 out, 2 questionable

+1.6

Expected marginfor Spurs

+11.7

Scenarios

Spurs win by 10+

56%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

20%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALSA

114.1

Points scored / game

118.9

117.4

Points allowed / game

111.1

49.0 %

Field goal %

46.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

76.7 %

Free throw %

78.3 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

45.0

27.6

Assists / game

28.2

9.0

Steals / game

9.8

7.4

Blocks / game

6.6

15.6

Turnovers / game

12.8

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 17% · SA 83%

ESPN BPI

DAL 24% · SA 77%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		SA
3-2	Record	3-2
114.1	Points scored / game	118.9
117.4	Points allowed / game	111.1
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+6.6
W2	Current streak	W3
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-1 road	Home / road record	1-2 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	62-20 (+8.3)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.