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Spurs vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, February 9

Tue, Feb 9 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBC, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

San Antonio Spurs

3-2 · away

Projected score

119-110

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

76% win SAwin DAL 24%

FavoriteSA

Projected margin8.7

Projected total229

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the San Antonio Spurs (3-2) on Tuesday, February 9 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Spurs a 76% chance to win and projects a 119-110 score (Spurs – Mavericks), about 229 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Spurs are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 3-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Spurs W3). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tobias Harris (Spurs), Jayden Quaintance (Spurs), Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

On paper, the Spurs dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 110 – 119 Spurs, a margin of about 8.7 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). The Spurs will be without Tobias Harris or Jayden Quaintance.

The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +6.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Spurs' offense (118.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Spurs' defense allows clearly fewer points (111.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / SA +6.6 per game

-9.4

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 3 out, 2 questionable · SA: 2 out, 0 questionable

-1.6

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-8.7

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

25%

Spurs win by 10+

46%

Stat comparison Current season

SADAL

118.9

Points scored / game

114.1

111.1

Points allowed / game

117.4

46.0 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

34.6 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

78.3 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

45.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

28.2

Assists / game

27.6

9.8

Steals / game

9.0

6.6

Blocks / game

7.4

12.8

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Spurs

Victor WembanyamaF · #125.0pts / game

De'Aaron FoxG · #47.0assists

Victor WembanyamaF · #111.4rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

116-104L

114-110W

122-106W

130-103W

117-111 OT

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

SA lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

SA 76% · DAL 24%

ESPN BPI

SA 72% · DAL 28%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

SA		DAL
3-2	Record	3-2
118.9	Points scored / game	114.1
111.1	Points allowed / game	117.4
+6.6	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W3	Current streak	W2
3-2	Last 10 games	3-2
2-0 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
62-20 (+8.3)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Spurs

Tobias Harris FOut

Jayden Quaintance FOut

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.