Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Wednesday, October 28
At a glance
The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-1) host the Golden State Warriors (1-3) on Wednesday, October 28 at 8:00 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 119 – Timberwolves 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 77% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-0 at home and the Warriors are 1-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-1 for the Timberwolves and 1-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Timberwolves L1, Warriors W1).
The analysis Model
The Timberwolves start with a clear edge. The model projects Timberwolves 120 – 111 Warriors, a margin of about 9.2 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 232 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+5.8 vs -1.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (119.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSMIN
Top performers
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3044pts / gameStephen CurryG · #306assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19reboundsTimberwolves
Jonathan KumingaF · #2420pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #18assists
Joan BeringerF · #1910reboundsRecent form
GSMIN
GS
Team comparison
| GS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-3 | Record | 3-1 |
| 115.3 | Points scored / game | 119.0 |
| 116.6 | Points allowed / game | 112.2 |
| -1.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.8 |
| W1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 1-3 | Last 10 games | 3-1 |
| 1-2 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 49-33 (+3.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Timberwolves
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.