Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Friday, April 2
At a glance
The Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) host the Golden State Warriors (2-3) on Friday, April 2 at 7:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 78% chance to win and projects a 110-120 score (Warriors – Timberwolves), about 230 total points. This season, the Timberwolves are 1-1 at home and the Warriors are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Timberwolves and 2-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Warriors W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 24% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors), Jimmy Butler III (Warriors), Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves) and Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves). Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Timberwolves dominate this matchup. The model projects Timberwolves 120 – 110 Warriors, a margin of about 9.5 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other).
- The overall strength gap (+5.2 vs -0.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
GSMIN
Players to watch
Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsTimberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsRecent form
GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| GS | MIN | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-3 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.5 | Points scored / game | 118.7 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 112.6 |
| -0.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +5.2 |
| W2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 2-3 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 2-2 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 37-45 (-0.6) | Last season | 49-33 (+3.4) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Warriors
Injury report Timberwolves
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.