Timberwolves vs Warriors prediction NBA · Sunday, December 27
At a glance
The Golden State Warriors (2-3) host the Minnesota Timberwolves (3-2) on Sunday, December 27 at 8:30 PM ET at Chase Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Timberwolves a 65% chance to win and projects a 117-112 score (Timberwolves – Warriors), about 230 total points. This season, the Warriors are 0-1 at home and the Timberwolves are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-3 for the Warriors and 3-2 for the Timberwolves (current streaks: Warriors W2, Timberwolves L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Anthony Edwards (Timberwolves), Donte DiVincenzo (Timberwolves), Kristaps Porzingis (Warriors), Moses Moody (Warriors) and Jimmy Butler III (Warriors). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Warriors 112 – 117 Timberwolves, a margin of about 4.9 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors will be without Kristaps Porzingis or Moses Moody (and 1 other). The Timberwolves will be without Anthony Edwards or Donte DiVincenzo.
- The overall strength gap (-0.8 vs +5.2 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Timberwolves' offense (118.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Timberwolves' defense allows clearly fewer points (112.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MINGS
Players to watch
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #533.2pts / game
LaMelo BallG · #16.6assists
Rudy GobertC · #2712.2reboundsWarriors
Stephen CurryG · #3028.8pts / game
Draymond GreenF · #236.8assists
Yaxel LendeborgF · #19.2reboundsRecent form
MIN
131-106W
115-93W
117-94L
127-125 OTL
119-114GS
127-105L
111-108L
131-122W
134-114W
119-114Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| MIN | GS | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 2-3 |
| 118.7 | Points scored / game | 115.5 |
| 112.6 | Points allowed / game | 116.4 |
| +5.2 | Adjusted margin / game | -0.8 |
| L2 | Current streak | W2 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 2-3 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 0-1 home |
| 49-33 (+3.4) | Last season | 37-45 (-0.6) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Timberwolves
Injury report Warriors
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.