Mavericks vs Heat prediction NBA · Monday, October 26
At a glance
The Miami Heat (0-3) host the Dallas Mavericks (1-2) on Monday, October 26 at 7:30 PM ET at Kaseya Center in NBA action. Final score: Mavericks 113 – Heat 109. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Heat a 68% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Heat are 0-2 at home and the Mavericks are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-3 for the Heat and 1-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Heat L3, Mavericks L1).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Heat, but the Mavericks have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Heat 121 – 115 Mavericks, a margin of about 6.0 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 236 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Heat's offense (118.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALMIA
Top performers
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3229pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #3211assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #259reboundsHeat
Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #729pts / gameGiannis AntetokounmpoF · #711assistsGiannis AntetokounmpoF · #714reboundsRecent form
DALMIA
DAL
Team comparison
| DAL | MIA | |
|---|---|---|
| 1-2 | Record | 0-3 |
| 113.8 | Points scored / game | 118.5 |
| 119.4 | Points allowed / game | 119.8 |
| -4.8 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.1 |
| L1 | Current streak | L3 |
| 1-2 | Last 10 games | 0-3 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 26-56 (-5.5) | Last season | 43-39 (+2.3) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Heat
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.