Match analysis Today's games NBA standings EuroLeague Track record

Heat vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 29

Tue, Dec 29 · 8:00 PM ETAmerican Airlines Center · NBC

Miami Heat

1-4 · away

Projected score

118-115

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

59% win MIAwin DAL 41%

FavoriteMIA

Projected margin3.0

Projected total233

ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Miami Heat (1-4) on Tuesday, December 29 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Heat a 59% chance to win and projects a 118-115 score (Heat – Mavericks), about 233 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Heat are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 1-4 for the Heat (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Heat W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks) and Dereck Lively II (Mavericks). Prediction confidence: low.

The analysis Model

The Heat are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 115 – 118 Heat, a margin of about 3.0 points in favor of the Heat and a total around 233 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other).

The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Heat's offense (118.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -2.8 / MIA -0.6 per game

-2.3

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

InjuriesDAL: 3 out, 2 questionable · MIA: 0 out, 1 questionable

-3.1

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-3.0

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

15%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

30%

Heat win by 10+

29%

Stat comparison Current season

MIADAL

118.6

Points scored / game

114.1

119.2

Points allowed / game

117.4

45.3 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

31.7 %

3-point %

34.6 %

37.8

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

71.7 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

42.8

Rebounds / game

44.2

27.0

Assists / game

27.6

8.4

Steals / game

9.0

5.4

Blocks / game

7.4

14.2

Turnovers / game

15.6

Players to watch

Heat

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #727.6pts / game

Davion MitchellG · #27.6assists

Giannis AntetokounmpoF · #711.2rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

MIA

131-106L

128-111L

115-110L

113-109W

129-117

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

Head-to-head

DAL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

MIA 59% · DAL 41%

ESPN BPI

MIA 46% · DAL 54%

⚠ The two models disagree: handle this game with caution.

Team comparison

MIA		DAL
1-4	Record	3-2
118.6	Points scored / game	114.1
119.2	Points allowed / game	117.4
-0.6	Adjusted margin / game	-2.8
W1	Current streak	W2
1-4	Last 10 games	3-2
1-1 road	Home / road record	1-1 home
43-39 (+2.3)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Heat

Simone Fontecchio FDay-To-Day

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.