Model track record
Every prediction compared with the final score. The hits and the misses.
No hand-picked numbers: everything is recalculated automatically.
By confidence level
The higher the confidence, the more often the favorite should win.
Calibration
When Basketlog says 70%, the favorite should win about 7 times out of 10.
favorite's actual wins stated probability
Recent results 80 games
91 - 74
VIRZAL 51%✓PAR
75 - 82
ASVPAR 55%✗EFS
88 - 118
HTAHTA 76%✓OLY
81 - 73
BJKOLY 63%✓
104 - 86
KBARMB 73%✓FBT
78 - 86
VBCVBC 64%✓MIL
75 - 80
PAOPAO 88%✓BAR
88 - 84
BAYBAR 56%✓MTA
78 - 100
CZVCZV 78%✓PBB
99 - 93
DUBDUB 74%✗82 - 85PARCZV 56%✗BAR89 - 81MILBAR 55%✓KBA79 - 85PAOPAO 91%✓RMB113 - 99MTARMB 63%✓DUB107 - 91BAYBAY 50%✗BJK80 - 89EFSEFS 50%✓81 - 90HTAHTA 73%✓78 - 86VIRVIR 72%✓OLY105 - 100BAROLY 60%✓HTA91 - 81PAOPAO 78%✗PBB81 - 90CZVCZV 75%✓EFS85 - 70ZALZAL 78%✗BAY87 - 95BJKBJK 69%✓92 - 111RMBRMB 84%✓MTA91 - 88VBCVBC 85%✗DUB101 - 97MILDUB 51%✓PAR65 - 74FBTFBT 79%✓How this track record is calculated
For every completed game, we rerun the Basketlog model using only the results known before tip-off, then compare the predicted favorite with the actual winner. No information from the future is used.
Injuries aren't included in this track record, because the exact pregame list isn't always known. The predictions shown before games do factor them in, so they are slightly better informed than this track record.
The 2025-26 tab is a backtest on a full season already played, to judge the model on more than 1,000 games.
Basketlog is not a betting service. A good past track record does not guarantee future results.