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Anadolu Efes vs Hapoel TLV prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 28

FinalARENA BOTEVGRAD
24% win EFSwin HTA 76%
FavoriteHTA
Projected margin8.1
Projected total170
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (5-2) host Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-4) on Wednesday, October 28 at 2:00 PM ET at ARENA BOTEVGRAD in EuroLeague action. Final score: Anadolu Efes 88 – Hapoel TLV 118. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv a 76% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv are 3-1 at home and Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 5-2 for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv and 3-4 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul (current streaks: Hapoel TLV W3, Anadolu Efes W2).

The analysis Model

On paper, Hapoel TLV dominates this matchup. The model projects Hapoel TLV 89 – 81 Anadolu Efes, a margin of about 8.1 points in favor of Hapoel TLV and a total around 170 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+2.5 vs -2.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Anadolu Efes needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Hapoel TLV's offense (88.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hapoel TLV
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HTA +2.5 / EFS -2.4 per game
+4.9
Home-court advantageHapoel TLV at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Hapoel TLV
+8.1

Scenarios

Hapoel TLV win by 10+
44%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
27%
Anadolu Efes win by 10+
6%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

EFSHTA
81.5
Points scored / game
88.6
84.3
Points allowed / game
85.6
-2.4
Adjusted margin / game
2.5
43 %
Win %
71 %
2
Home wins
3
1
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
EFS
WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade72-77
HTA
WVirtus Bologna90-81WPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens91-81WBesiktas Istanbul100-82LValencia Basket82-93WReal Madrid102-98

Team comparison

EFSHTA
3-4Record5-2
81.5Points scored / game88.6
84.3Points allowed / game85.6
-2.4Adjusted margin / game+2.5
W2Current streakW3
3-4Last 10 games5-2
1-3 roadHome / road record3-1 home
12-26 (-4.2)Last season24-18 (+1.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.