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Hapoel TLV vs Anadolu Efes prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, April 15

Thu, Apr 15 · 1:30 PM ETTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
66% win HTAwin EFS 34%
FavoriteHTA
Projected margin4.6
Projected total172
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Anadolu Efes Istanbul (3-5) host Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (6-2) on Thursday, April 15 at 1:30 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv a 66% chance to win and projects a 88-84 score (Hapoel TLV – Anadolu Efes), about 172 total points. This season, Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 2-1 at home and Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-5 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul and 6-2 for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (current streaks: Anadolu Efes L1, Hapoel TLV W4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 31% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: medium.

The analysis Model

Hapoel TLV is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Anadolu Efes 84 – 88 Hapoel TLV, a margin of about 4.6 points in favor of Hapoel TLV and a total around 172 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The overall strength gap (-3.9 vs +3.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Anadolu Efes needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Hapoel TLV's offense (90.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Anadolu Efes
Team strength (adjusted point differential)EFS -3.9 / HTA +3.9 per game
-7.8
Home-court advantageAnadolu Efes at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Anadolu Efes
-4.6

Scenarios

Anadolu Efes win by 10+
10%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Hapoel TLV win by 10+
32%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

HTAEFS
90.4
Points scored / game
81.9
85.8
Points allowed / game
86.4
3.9
Adjusted margin / game
-3.9
75 %
Win %
38 %
4
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
HTA
WAnadolu Efes Istanbul118-88WVirtus Bologna90-81WPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens91-81WBesiktas Istanbul100-82LValencia Basket82-93
EFS
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv88-118WBesiktas Istanbul89-80WZalgiris Kaunas85-70LFC Bayern Munich93-101LOlympiacos Piraeus66-89

Team comparison

HTAEFS
6-2Record3-5
90.4Points scored / game81.9
85.8Points allowed / game86.4
+3.9Adjusted margin / game-3.9
W4Current streakL1
6-2Last 10 games3-5
2-1 roadHome / road record2-1 home
24-18 (+1.9)Last season12-26 (-4.2)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.