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Zalgiris vs Virtus Bologna prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 28

FinalPALADOZZA
51% win ZALwin VIR 49%
FavoriteZAL
Projected margin0.3
Projected total171
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Virtus Bologna (4-3) host Zalgiris Kaunas (3-4) on Wednesday, October 28 at 3:30 PM ET at PALADOZZA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Zalgiris 91 – Virtus Bologna 74. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Zalgiris Kaunas a 51% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Virtus Bologna are 2-0 at home and Zalgiris Kaunas are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-3 for Virtus Bologna and 3-4 for Zalgiris Kaunas (current streaks: Virtus Bologna L1, Zalgiris W1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Virtus Bologna 85 – 86 Zalgiris, a margin of about 0.3 points in favor of Zalgiris and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Virtus Bologna
Team strength (adjusted point differential)VIR -2.2 / ZAL +1.3 per game
-3.5
Home-court advantageVirtus Bologna at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Virtus Bologna
-0.3

Scenarios

Virtus Bologna win by 10+
18%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
34%
Zalgiris win by 10+
20%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ZALVIR
86.1
Points scored / game
84.0
84.5
Points allowed / game
86.6
1.3
Adjusted margin / game
-2.2
43 %
Win %
57 %
1
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ZAL
WLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne105-85LAnadolu Efes Istanbul70-85LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul80-99WFC Barcelona88-81LParis Basketball78-82
VIR
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv81-90WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87WOlympiacos Piraeus96-94

Team comparison

ZALVIR
3-4Record4-3
86.1Points scored / game84.0
84.5Points allowed / game86.6
+1.3Adjusted margin / game-2.2
W1Current streakL1
3-4Last 10 games4-3
2-2 roadHome / road record2-0 home
24-18 (+3.8)Last season14-24 (-4.6)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.