Virtus Bologna vs Zalgiris prediction EuroLeague · Friday, January 22
At a glance
Zalgiris Kaunas (4-4) host Virtus Bologna (4-4) on Friday, January 22 at 1:00 PM ET at ZALGIRIO ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Zalgiris Kaunas a 77% chance to win and projects a 81-89 score (Virtus Bologna – Zalgiris), about 170 total points. This season, Zalgiris Kaunas are 1-2 at home and Virtus Bologna are 2-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Zalgiris Kaunas and 4-4 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Zalgiris W2, Virtus Bologna L2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 26% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
Zalgiris starts with a clear edge. The model projects Zalgiris 89 – 81 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 8.3 points in favor of Zalgiris and a total around 170 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.
- The overall strength gap (+2.2 vs -3.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- Zalgiris' defense allows clearly fewer points (83.8 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison EuroLeague
VIRZAL
Recent form
VIR74-91L
81-90W
86-78W
96-94W
94-87ZAL91-74W
105-85L
70-85L
80-99W
88-81Team comparison
| VIR | ZAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-4 | Record | 4-4 |
| 83.4 | Points scored / game | 86.4 |
| 86.9 | Points allowed / game | 83.8 |
| -3.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.2 |
| L2 | Current streak | W2 |
| 4-4 | Last 10 games | 4-4 |
| 2-3 road | Home / road record | 1-2 home |
| 14-24 (-4.6) | Last season | 24-18 (+3.8) |
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.