Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Maccabi vs Valencia prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, October 15

FinalROIG ARENA
15% win MTAwin VBC 85%
FavoriteVBC
Projected margin11.8
Projected total181
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

Valencia Basket (4-1) host Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (1-4) on Thursday, October 15 at 2:30 PM ET at ROIG ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Maccabi 91 – Valencia 88. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Valencia Basket a 85% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, Valencia Basket are 2-1 at home and Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv are 0-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for Valencia Basket and 1-4 for Maccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv (current streaks: Valencia L1, Maccabi L1).

The analysis Model

Valencia starts with a clear edge. The model projects Valencia 96 – 85 Maccabi, a margin of about 11.8 points in favor of Valencia and a total around 181 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The overall strength gap (+5.0 vs -3.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Maccabi needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Valencia's offense (94.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Valencia's defense allows clearly fewer points (88.3 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Valencia
Team strength (adjusted point differential)VBC +5.0 / MTA -3.5 per game
+8.6
Home-court advantageValencia at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Valencia
+11.8

Scenarios

Valencia win by 10+
56%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
21%
Maccabi win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

MTAVBC
87.6
Points scored / game
94.2
91.8
Points allowed / game
88.3
-3.5
Adjusted margin / game
5.0
20 %
Win %
80 %
1
Home wins
2
0
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
MTA
LFC Barcelona87-90WArmani Olimpia Milan97-79LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens67-90LBesiktas Istanbul93-109LLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne74-84
VBC
LOlympiacos Piraeus97-102WHapoel IBI Tel Aviv93-82WLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne105-92WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz111-88WBesiktas Istanbul96-94

Team comparison

MTAVBC
1-4Record4-1
87.6Points scored / game94.2
91.8Points allowed / game88.3
-3.5Adjusted margin / game+5.0
L1Current streakL1
1-4Last 10 games4-1
0-3 roadHome / road record2-1 home
18-20 (-2.5)Last season28-16 (+4.1)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.