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Partizan vs Real Madrid prediction EuroLeague · Thursday, October 8

FinalMOVISTAR ARENA
31% win PARwin RMB 69%
FavoriteRMB
Projected margin5.9
Projected total171
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Real Madrid (0-3) host Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (3-0) on Thursday, October 8 at 2:45 PM ET at MOVISTAR ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Partizan 76 – Real Madrid 86. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Real Madrid a 69% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-3 for Real Madrid and 3-0 for Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (current streaks: Real Madrid L3, Partizan W3).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Real Madrid, but Partizan has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Real Madrid 88 – 82 Partizan, a margin of about 5.9 points in favor of Real Madrid and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Partizan needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Real Madrid's offense (87.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Real Madrid
Team strength (adjusted point differential)RMB +2.0 / PAR -0.7 per game
+2.7
Home-court advantageReal Madrid at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Real Madrid
+5.9

Scenarios

Real Madrid win by 10+
36%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Partizan win by 10+
8%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

PARRMB
83.9
Points scored / game
87.6
84.7
Points allowed / game
85.3
-0.7
Adjusted margin / game
2.0
100 %
Win %
0 %
1
Home wins
0
2
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
PAR
WFC Bayern Munich86-84WParis Basketball92-79WArmani Olimpia Milan92-76
RMB
LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv98-102LAnadolu Efes Istanbul84-94LDubai Basketball77-78

Team comparison

PARRMB
3-0Record0-3
83.9Points scored / game87.6
84.7Points allowed / game85.3
-0.7Adjusted margin / game+2.0
W3Current streakL3
3-0Last 10 games0-3
2-0 roadHome / road record0-0 home
16-22 (-4.9)Last season28-16 (+5.1)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.