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Partizan vs LDLC ASVEL prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 28

FinalLDLC ARENA
55% win PARwin ASV 45%
FavoritePAR
Projected margin1.4
Projected total169
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (2-5) host Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (4-3) on Wednesday, October 28 at 3:00 PM ET at LDLC ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Partizan 75 – LDLC ASVEL 82. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade a 55% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne are 1-2 at home and Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-5 for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne and 4-3 for Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (current streaks: LDLC ASVEL L3, Partizan W1).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects LDLC ASVEL 84 – 85 Partizan, a margin of about 1.4 points in favor of Partizan and a total around 169 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • The overall strength gap (-7.0 vs -2.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • LDLC ASVEL needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Partizan's defense allows clearly fewer points (83.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge LDLC ASVEL
Team strength (adjusted point differential)ASV -7.0 / PAR -2.4 per game
-4.6
Home-court advantageLDLC ASVEL at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor LDLC ASVEL
-1.4

Scenarios

LDLC ASVEL win by 10+
16%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Partizan win by 10+
23%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

PARASV
80.3
Points scored / game
83.1
83.0
Points allowed / game
91.3
-2.4
Adjusted margin / game
-7.0
57 %
Win %
29 %
2
Home wins
1
2
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
PAR
WCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade85-82LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul65-74LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens55-72LReal Madrid76-86WFC Bayern Munich86-84
ASV
LZalgiris Kaunas85-105LReal Madrid92-111LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade82-84WParis Basketball98-96LValencia Basket92-105

Team comparison

PARASV
4-3Record2-5
80.3Points scored / game83.1
83.0Points allowed / game91.3
-2.4Adjusted margin / game-7.0
W1Current streakL3
4-3Last 10 games2-5
2-2 roadHome / road record1-2 home
16-22 (-4.9)Last season8-30 (-7.3)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.