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LDLC ASVEL vs Partizan prediction EuroLeague · Friday, April 2

Fri, Apr 2 · 2:45 PM ETBELGRADE ARENA
28% win ASVwin PAR 72%
FavoritePAR
Projected margin6.8
Projected total168
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade (4-4) host LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (3-5) on Friday, April 2 at 2:45 PM ET at BELGRADE ARENA in EuroLeague action. The Basketlog model gives Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade a 72% chance to win and projects a 81-87 score (LDLC ASVEL – Partizan), about 168 total points. This season, Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade are 2-1 at home and LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne are 1-3 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-4 for Partizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade and 3-5 for LDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne (current streaks: Partizan L1, LDLC ASVEL W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 29% of cases according to the model. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

Partizan starts with a clear edge. The model projects Partizan 87 – 81 LDLC ASVEL, a margin of about 6.8 points in favor of Partizan and a total around 168 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace.

  • LDLC ASVEL needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • LDLC ASVEL's offense (83.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Partizan's defense allows clearly fewer points (83.0 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Partizan
Team strength (adjusted point differential)PAR -2.6 / ASV -6.2 per game
+3.6
Home-court advantagePartizan at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Partizan
+6.8

Scenarios

Partizan win by 10+
39%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
29%
LDLC ASVEL win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

ASVPAR
83.0
Points scored / game
79.9
90.3
Points allowed / game
83.0
-6.2
Adjusted margin / game
-2.6
38 %
Win %
50 %
2
Home wins
2
1
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
ASV
WPartizan Mozzart Bet Belgrade82-75LZalgiris Kaunas85-105LReal Madrid92-111LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade82-84WParis Basketball98-96
PAR
LLDLC ASVEL Villeurbanne75-82WCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade85-82LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul65-74LPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens55-72LReal Madrid76-86

Team comparison

ASVPAR
3-5Record4-4
83.0Points scored / game79.9
90.3Points allowed / game83.0
-6.2Adjusted margin / game-2.6
W1Current streakL1
3-5Last 10 games4-4
1-3 roadHome / road record2-1 home
8-30 (-7.3)Last season16-22 (-4.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.