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Besiktas vs Hapoel TLV prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 14

FinalARENA 8888 SOFIA
39% win BJKwin HTA 61%
FavoriteHTA
Projected margin3.1
Projected total174
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (2-2) host Besiktas Istanbul (2-2) on Wednesday, October 14 at 12:00 PM ET at ARENA 8888 SOFIA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Besiktas 82 – Hapoel TLV 100. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv a 61% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv are 1-1 at home and Besiktas Istanbul are 2-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv and 2-2 for Besiktas Istanbul (current streaks: Hapoel TLV L1, Besiktas W1).

The analysis Model

Hapoel TLV is favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Hapoel TLV 89 – 85 Besiktas, a margin of about 3.1 points in favor of Hapoel TLV and a total around 174 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Besiktas needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hapoel TLV
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HTA +0.5 / BJK +0.6 per game
-0.1
Home-court advantageHapoel TLV at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Hapoel TLV
+3.1

Scenarios

Hapoel TLV win by 10+
27%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
33%
Besiktas win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

BJKHTA
87.4
Points scored / game
87.3
86.7
Points allowed / game
86.7
0.6
Adjusted margin / game
0.5
50 %
Win %
50 %
0
Home wins
1
2
Road wins
1

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
BJK
WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz92-84LFC Barcelona82-95WMaccabi Rapyd Tel Aviv109-93LValencia Basket94-96
HTA
LValencia Basket82-93WReal Madrid102-98WCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade81-80LFC Bayern Munich84-86

Team comparison

BJKHTA
2-2Record2-2
87.4Points scored / game87.3
86.7Points allowed / game86.7
+0.6Adjusted margin / game+0.5
W1Current streakL1
2-2Last 10 games2-2
2-0 roadHome / road record1-1 home
–Last season24-18 (+1.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.