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Olympiacos vs Besiktas prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 28

FinalTURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER
63% win OLYwin BJK 37%
FavoriteOLY
Projected margin3.7
Projected total175
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Besiktas Istanbul (3-4) host Olympiacos Piraeus (5-2) on Wednesday, October 28 at 1:30 PM ET at TURKCELL BASKETBALL DEVELOPMENT CENTER in EuroLeague action. Final score: Olympiacos 81 – Besiktas 73. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Olympiacos Piraeus a 63% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Besiktas Istanbul are 1-2 at home and Olympiacos Piraeus are 4-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-4 for Besiktas Istanbul and 5-2 for Olympiacos Piraeus (current streaks: Besiktas L1, Olympiacos L1).

The analysis Model

Slight edge to Olympiacos, but Besiktas has what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Besiktas 86 – 89 Olympiacos, a margin of about 3.7 points in favor of Olympiacos and a total around 175 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • The overall strength gap (-0.6 vs +6.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Besiktas needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Olympiacos' offense (91.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Olympiacos' defense allows clearly fewer points (84.2 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Besiktas
Team strength (adjusted point differential)BJK -0.6 / OLY +6.3 per game
-6.9
Home-court advantageBesiktas at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Besiktas
-3.7

Scenarios

Besiktas win by 10+
12%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
32%
Olympiacos win by 10+
29%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

OLYBJK
91.6
Points scored / game
87.1
84.2
Points allowed / game
87.7
6.3
Adjusted margin / game
-0.6
71 %
Win %
43 %
1
Home wins
1
4
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
OLY
LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul61-64WFC Barcelona105-100WValencia Basket102-97WAnadolu Efes Istanbul89-66LVirtus Bologna94-96
BJK
LAnadolu Efes Istanbul80-89WFC Bayern Munich95-87LHapoel IBI Tel Aviv82-100WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz92-84LFC Barcelona82-95

Team comparison

OLYBJK
5-2Record3-4
91.6Points scored / game87.1
84.2Points allowed / game87.7
+6.3Adjusted margin / game-0.6
L1Current streakL1
5-2Last 10 games3-4
4-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
31-12 (+8.0)Last season–

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.