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Anadolu Efes vs Olympiacos prediction EuroLeague · Friday, October 9

FinalSUNEL ARENA
14% win EFSwin OLY 86%
FavoriteOLY
Projected margin12.3
Projected total171
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

Olympiacos Piraeus (2-1) host Anadolu Efes Istanbul (1-2) on Friday, October 9 at 2:15 PM ET at SUNEL ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Anadolu Efes 66 – Olympiacos 89. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Olympiacos Piraeus a 86% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Anadolu Efes Istanbul are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-1 for Olympiacos Piraeus and 1-2 for Anadolu Efes Istanbul (current streaks: Olympiacos L1, Anadolu Efes L1).

The analysis Model

Olympiacos starts with a clear edge. The model projects Olympiacos 92 – 79 Anadolu Efes, a margin of about 12.3 points in favor of Olympiacos and a total around 171 points. Expect a game at a typical EuroLeague pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The overall strength gap (+6.3 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • Anadolu Efes needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Olympiacos' offense (92.4 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Olympiacos
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OLY +6.3 / EFS -2.8 per game
+9.1
Home-court advantageOlympiacos at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Olympiacos
+12.3

Scenarios

Olympiacos win by 10+
58%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
20%
Anadolu Efes win by 10+
3%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

EFSOLY
80.8
Points scored / game
92.4
84.1
Points allowed / game
85.0
-2.8
Adjusted margin / game
6.3
33 %
Win %
67 %
1
Home wins
0
0
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
EFS
LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade72-77WReal Madrid94-84LFC Barcelona82-89
OLY
LVirtus Bologna94-96WZalgiris Kaunas93-91WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz106-89

Team comparison

EFSOLY
1-2Record2-1
80.8Points scored / game92.4
84.1Points allowed / game85.0
-2.8Adjusted margin / game+6.3
L1Current streakL1
1-2Last 10 games2-1
0-2 roadHome / road record0-0 home
12-26 (-4.2)Last season31-12 (+8.0)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.