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Virtus Bologna vs Hapoel TLV prediction EuroLeague · Wednesday, October 21

FinalARENA 8888 SOFIA
27% win VIRwin HTA 73%
FavoriteHTA
Projected margin7.2
Projected total173
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv (4-2) host Virtus Bologna (4-2) on Wednesday, October 21 at 12:00 PM ET at ARENA 8888 SOFIA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Virtus Bologna 81 – Hapoel TLV 90. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv a 73% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv are 2-1 at home and Virtus Bologna are 2-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-2 for Hapoel IBI Tel Aviv and 4-2 for Virtus Bologna (current streaks: Hapoel TLV W2, Virtus Bologna W4).

The analysis Model

On paper, Hapoel TLV dominates this matchup. The model projects Hapoel TLV 90 – 83 Virtus Bologna, a margin of about 7.2 points in favor of Hapoel TLV and a total around 173 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game.

  • Virtus Bologna needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Hapoel TLV's offense (88.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Hapoel TLV
Team strength (adjusted point differential)HTA +2.1 / VIR -1.8 per game
+4.0
Home-court advantageHapoel TLV at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Hapoel TLV
+7.2

Scenarios

Hapoel TLV win by 10+
40%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
28%
Virtus Bologna win by 10+
7%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

VIRHTA
84.3
Points scored / game
88.5
86.4
Points allowed / game
85.9
-1.8
Adjusted margin / game
2.1
67 %
Win %
67 %
2
Home wins
2
2
Road wins
2

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
VIR
WKosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz86-78WParis Basketball96-94WFC Bayern Munich94-87WOlympiacos Piraeus96-94LArmani Olimpia Milan85-87
HTA
WPanathinaikos AKTOR Athens91-81WBesiktas Istanbul100-82LValencia Basket82-93WReal Madrid102-98WCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade81-80

Team comparison

VIRHTA
4-2Record4-2
84.3Points scored / game88.5
86.4Points allowed / game85.9
-1.8Adjusted margin / game+2.1
W4Current streakW2
4-2Last 10 games4-2
2-2 roadHome / road record2-1 home
14-24 (-4.6)Last season24-18 (+1.9)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.