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Dubai vs Baskonia prediction EuroLeague · Tuesday, October 13

FinalBUESA ARENA
53% win DUBwin KBA 47%
FavoriteDUB
Projected margin0.8
Projected total175
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz (1-3) host Dubai Basketball (2-2) on Tuesday, October 13 at 2:30 PM ET at BUESA ARENA in EuroLeague action. Final score: Dubai 93 – Baskonia 79. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave Dubai Basketball a 53% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz are 1-2 at home and Dubai Basketball are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-3 for Kosner Baskonia Vitoria-Gasteiz and 2-2 for Dubai Basketball (current streaks: Baskonia L1, Dubai L2).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Baskonia 87 – 88 Dubai, a margin of about 0.8 points in favor of Dubai and a total around 175 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • Baskonia needs to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • Baskonia's offense (87.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • Dubai's defense allows clearly fewer points (85.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Baskonia
Team strength (adjusted point differential)KBA -5.4 / DUB -1.4 per game
-4.0
Home-court advantageBaskonia at home (very strong in Europe)
+3.2
Expected marginfor Baskonia
-0.8

Scenarios

Baskonia win by 10+
17%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
34%
Dubai win by 10+
21%

Stat comparison EuroLeague

DUBKBA
83.4
Points scored / game
87.8
85.1
Points allowed / game
94.1
-1.4
Adjusted margin / game
-5.4
50 %
Win %
25 %
2
Home wins
1
0
Road wins
0

Recent form

Last 5 EuroLeague games
DUB
LCrvena Zvezda Meridianbet Belgrade58-77LFenerbahce Tarfin Istanbul66-76WFC Barcelona94-87WReal Madrid78-77
KBA
LBesiktas Istanbul84-92WArmani Olimpia Milan86-76LValencia Basket88-111LOlympiacos Piraeus89-106

Team comparison

DUBKBA
2-2Record1-3
83.4Points scored / game87.8
85.1Points allowed / game94.1
-1.4Adjusted margin / game-5.4
L2Current streakL1
2-2Last 10 games1-3
0-1 roadHome / road record1-2 home
19-19 (+0.1)Last season13-25 (-4.7)

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.