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Thunder vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Wednesday, October 28

FinalAmerican Airlines Center · ESPN, KSBI, Thunder App, KFAA-TV, MavsTV

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · away

Final score

96-120

Projected: 120-108

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · home

82% win OKCwin DAL 18%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin11.3

Projected total228

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Dallas Mavericks (2-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-0) on Wednesday, October 28 at 9:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 96 – Mavericks 120. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 82% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Mavericks are 0-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-0 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Mavericks and 4-0 for the Thunder (current streaks: Mavericks W1, Thunder W4).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Mavericks 108 – 120 Thunder, a margin of about 11.3 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (-4.3 vs +9.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's offense (117.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.1 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Mavericks

Team strength (adjusted point differential)DAL -4.3 / OKC +9.3 per game

-13.6

Home-court advantageMavericks at home

+2.3

Expected marginfor Mavericks

-11.3

Scenarios

Mavericks win by 10+

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Thunder win by 10+

54%

Stat comparison Current season

OKCDAL

117.1

Points scored / game

113.7

106.1

Points allowed / game

118.7

44.0 %

Field goal %

49.0 %

30.9 %

3-point %

34.6 %

32.4

3-pointers attempted / game

38.2

86.4 %

Free throw %

76.7 %

46.0

Rebounds / game

44.2

22.0

Assists / game

27.6

8.4

Steals / game

9.0

6.8

Blocks / game

7.4

13.6

Turnovers / game

15.6

Top performers

Thunder

Ajay MitchellG · #2529pts / game

Jared McCainG · #34assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #5514rebounds

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3226pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #328assists

Daniel GaffordF · #2111rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

OKC

No games played yet.

DAL

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

DAL lead 1-0 this season.

Team comparison

OKC		DAL
4-0	Record	2-2
117.1	Points scored / game	113.7
106.1	Points allowed / game	118.7
+9.3	Adjusted margin / game	-4.3
W4	Current streak	W1
4-0	Last 10 games	2-2
1-0 road	Home / road record	0-1 home
64-18 (+11.1)	Last season	26-56 (-5.5)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Injury report Mavericks

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.