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Mavericks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Monday, March 8

Mon, Mar 8 · 9:30 PM ETPaycom Center · NBCSN, KSBI, Thunder App

Dallas Mavericks

3-2 · away

Projected score

106-118

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-1 · home

18% win DALwin OKC 82%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin11.6

Projected total224

ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Monday, March 8 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 82% chance to win and projects a 106-118 score (Mavericks – Thunder), about 224 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Thunder L1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 21% of cases according to the model. Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder) and Thomas Sorber (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 118 – 106 Mavericks, a margin of about 11.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 224 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other).

The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +7.6 / DAL -2.8 per game

+10.4

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

InjuriesOKC: 5 out, 1 questionable · DAL: 3 out, 2 questionable

-1.1

Expected marginfor Thunder

+11.6

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

55%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

21%

Mavericks win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

DALOKC

114.1

Points scored / game

115.8

117.4

Points allowed / game

106.9

49.0 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

34.6 %

3-point %

30.9 %

38.2

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

76.7 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

44.2

Rebounds / game

46.0

27.6

Assists / game

22.0

9.0

Steals / game

8.4

7.4

Blocks / game

6.8

15.6

Turnovers / game

13.6

Players to watch

Mavericks

Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / game

Cooper FlaggF · #326.8assists

P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8rebounds

Thunder

Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game

Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

DAL

128-110W

121-105L

122-106W

113-109W

120-96

OKC

116-104W

96-84W

108-101W

125-114L

120-96

Head-to-head

DAL lead 1-0 this season.

Second opinion

Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.

Basketlog

DAL 18% · OKC 82%

ESPN BPI

DAL 26% · OKC 75%

✓ Both models pick the same favorite.

Team comparison

DAL		OKC
3-2	Record	4-1
114.1	Points scored / game	115.8
117.4	Points allowed / game	106.9
-2.8	Adjusted margin / game	+7.6
W2	Current streak	L1
3-2	Last 10 games	4-1
2-1 road	Home / road record	3-0 home
26-56 (-5.5)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	No

Injury report Mavericks

Tarik Biberovic FOut

Santi Aldama FOut

Dereck Lively II COut

Sergio de Larrea FDay-To-Day

Naji Marshall FDay-To-Day

Injury report Thunder

Jalen Williams GOut

Alex Caruso GOut

Thomas Sorber COut

Nikola Topic GOut

Cason Wallace GOut

Chet Holmgren CDay-To-Day

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.