Thunder vs Mavericks prediction NBA · Monday, January 18
At a glance
The Dallas Mavericks (3-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Monday, January 18 at 8:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 67% chance to win and projects a 114-109 score (Thunder – Mavericks), about 222 total points. This season, the Mavericks are 1-1 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-2 for the Mavericks and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Mavericks W2, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 28% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks)…. Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Mavericks 109 – 114 Thunder, a margin of about 5.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other). The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others).
- The overall strength gap (-2.8 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCDAL
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsMavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96DAL
128-110W
121-105L122-106W
113-109W
120-96Head-to-head
DAL lead 1-0 this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | DAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 3-2 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 114.1 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 117.4 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -2.8 |
| L1 | Current streak | W2 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 3-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 26-56 (-5.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Mavericks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.