Mavericks vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 17
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) host the Dallas Mavericks (3-2) on Wednesday, March 17 at 7:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 79% chance to win and projects a 106-116 score (Mavericks – Thunder), about 222 total points. This season, the Thunder are 3-0 at home and the Mavericks are 2-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 4-1 for the Thunder and 3-2 for the Mavericks (current streaks: Thunder L1, Mavericks W2). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 23% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Tarik Biberovic (Mavericks), Santi Aldama (Mavericks), Dereck Lively II (Mavericks), Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder) and Thomas Sorber (Thunder)…. Prediction confidence: high.
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 116 – 106 Mavericks, a margin of about 10.0 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). The Mavericks will be without Tarik Biberovic or Santi Aldama (and 1 other).
- The overall strength gap (+7.6 vs -2.8 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Mavericks need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DALOKC
Players to watch
Mavericks
Cooper FlaggF · #3225.2pts / gameCooper FlaggF · #326.8assists
P.J. WashingtonF · #257.8reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsRecent form
DAL
128-110W
121-105L
122-106W
113-109W
120-96OKC116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96Head-to-head
DAL lead 1-0 this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DAL | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | Record | 4-1 |
| 114.1 | Points scored / game | 115.8 |
| 117.4 | Points allowed / game | 106.9 |
| -2.8 | Adjusted margin / game | +7.6 |
| W2 | Current streak | L1 |
| 3-2 | Last 10 games | 4-1 |
| 2-1 road | Home / road record | 3-0 home |
| 26-56 (-5.5) | Last season | 64-18 (+11.1) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Mavericks
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.