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Suns vs Thunder prediction NBA · Monday, October 26

FinalPaycom Center · NBA League Pass, Suns Live, Arizona's Family 3TV, KSBI, Thunder App

Phoenix Suns

1-2 · away

Final score

114-125

Projected: 105-116

Oklahoma City Thunder

4-0 · home

19% win PHXwin OKC 81%

FavoriteOKC

Projected margin10.9

Projected total222

ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (3-0) host the Phoenix Suns (1-1) on Monday, October 26 at 8:00 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Suns 114 – Thunder 125. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 81% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 2-0 at home and the Suns are 0-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 3-0 for the Thunder and 1-1 for the Suns (current streaks: Thunder W3, Suns W1).

The analysis Model

On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 116 – 105 Suns, a margin of about 10.9 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 222 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

The overall strength gap (+9.3 vs -0.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
The Thunder's offense (116.6 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (105.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder

Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +9.3 / PHX -0.9 per game

+10.2

Home-court advantageThunder at home

+2.3

Back-to-backThunder played yesterday

-1.6

Expected marginfor Thunder

+10.9

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+

53%

Close game (margin ≤ 5)

22%

Suns win by 10+

Stat comparison Current season

PHXOKC

111.8

Points scored / game

116.6

112.8

Points allowed / game

105.6

45.6 %

Field goal %

44.0 %

31.9 %

3-point %

30.9 %

39.7

3-pointers attempted / game

32.4

73.9 %

Free throw %

86.4 %

39.7

Rebounds / game

46.0

25.3

Assists / game

22.0

8.7

Steals / game

8.4

5.3

Blocks / game

6.8

14.0

Turnovers / game

13.6

Top performers

Suns

Jalen GreenG · #420pts / game

Devin BookerG · #157assists

Miles BridgesF · #228rebounds

Thunder

Ajay MitchellG · #2530pts / game

Ajay MitchellG · #255assists

Isaiah HartensteinC · #5513rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)

PHX

No games played yet.

OKC

No games played yet.

Head-to-head

OKC lead 1-0 this season.

Team comparison

PHX		OKC
1-1	Record	3-0
111.8	Points scored / game	116.6
112.8	Points allowed / game	105.6
-0.9	Adjusted margin / game	+9.3
W1	Current streak	W3
1-1	Last 10 games	3-0
0-1 road	Home / road record	2-0 home
45-37 (+1.5)	Last season	64-18 (+11.1)
No	Played yesterday	Yes

Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.