Thunder vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 24
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (1-2) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (4-1) on Wednesday, March 24 at 10:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Thunder a 61% chance to win and projects a 112-108 score (Thunder – Suns), about 220 total points. This season, the Suns are 1-0 at home and the Thunder are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 1-2 for the Suns and 4-1 for the Thunder (current streaks: Suns L1, Thunder L1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Suns and the Thunder played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Jalen Williams (Thunder), Alex Caruso (Thunder), Thomas Sorber (Thunder), Nikola Topic (Thunder), Cason Wallace (Thunder) and Mark Williams (Suns). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 108 – 112 Thunder, a margin of about 3.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 220 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns and the Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Suns will be without Mark Williams. The Thunder will be without Jalen Williams or Alex Caruso (and 3 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-1.4 vs +7.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (115.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCPHX
Players to watch
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #226.0pts / game
Alex CarusoG · #93.8assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #559.6reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1522.7pts / gameDevin BookerG · #155.3assists
Khaman MaluachC · #107.3reboundsRecent form
OKC
116-104W
96-84W
108-101W
125-114L
120-96PHX123-103L
119-116L
124-83W
131-122L
125-114Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| OKC | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | Record | 1-2 |
| 115.8 | Points scored / game | 111.9 |
| 106.9 | Points allowed / game | 113.6 |
| +7.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.4 |
| L1 | Current streak | L1 |
| 4-1 | Last 10 games | 1-2 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 1-0 home |
| 64-18 (+11.1) | Last season | 45-37 (+1.5) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.