Thunder vs Lakers prediction NBA · Saturday, May 9
At a glance
The Los Angeles Lakers (57-33) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (70-18) on Saturday, May 9 at 8:30 PM ET at crypto.com Arena in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 131 – Lakers 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 70% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Lakers are 30-14 at home and the Thunder are 32-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Lakers and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Lakers L2, Thunder W6).
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Lakers 110 – 117 Thunder, a margin of about 6.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +10.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Lakers need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (119.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCLAL
Top performers
Thunder
Ajay MitchellG · #2524pts / gameAjay MitchellG · #2510assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #79reboundsLakers
Rui HachimuraF · #2821pts / game
Austin ReavesG · #159assists
Adou ThieroF · #18reboundsRecent form
OKCLALHead-to-head
OKC lead 4-0 this season.
LAL
Team comparison
| OKC | LAL | |
|---|---|---|
| 70-18 | Record | 57-33 |
| 119.3 | Points scored / game | 114.8 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 113.4 |
| +10.0 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.1 |
| W6 | Current streak | L2 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 32-10 road | Home / road record | 30-14 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 50-32 (+1.2) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Lakers
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.