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Spurs vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, May 10

FinalTarget Center · NBC, Peacock
54% win SAwin MIN 46%
FavoriteSA
Projected margin1.2
Projected total230
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (54-37) host the San Antonio Spurs (68-23) on Sunday, May 10 at 7:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 109 – Timberwolves 114. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Spurs a 54% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Timberwolves are 29-16 at home and the Spurs are 33-13 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Timberwolves and 7-3 for the Spurs (current streaks: Timberwolves L2, Spurs W2).

The analysis Model

Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Timberwolves 115 – 116 Spurs, a margin of about 1.2 points in favor of the Spurs and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The Timberwolves need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +2.6 / SA +6.1 per game
-3.5
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
-1.2

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
19%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Spurs win by 10+
24%

Stat comparison Current season

SAMIN
118.6
Points scored / game
116.8
111.4
Points allowed / game
113.7
46.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
34.6 %
3-point %
38.4 %
38.2
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
78.3 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
45.0
Rebounds / game
51.6
28.2
Assists / game
27.0
9.8
Steals / game
9.2
6.6
Blocks / game
4.4
12.8
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Spurs
Dylan HarperG · #224pts / game
Stephon CastleG · #54assists
Luke KornetC · #79rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #536pts / game
Naz ReidC · #04assists
Rudy GobertC · #2713rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
SA
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Team comparison

SAMIN
68-23Record54-37
118.6Points scored / game116.8
111.4Points allowed / game113.7
+6.1Adjusted margin / game+2.6
W2Current streakL2
7-3Last 10 games6-4
33-13 roadHome / road record29-16 home
34-48 (-2.8)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

San Antonio Spurs Injury report Spurs

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.