Thunder vs Suns prediction NBA · Monday, April 27
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (46-41) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (67-18) on Monday, April 27 at 9:30 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 131 – Suns 122. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Suns are 26-18 at home and the Thunder are 31-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Suns and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Suns L3, Thunder W3).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Suns 109 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 7.3 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 226 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+0.3 vs +9.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCPHX
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #231pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #712reboundsSuns
Devin BookerG · #1524pts / gameDevin BookerG · #156assists
Oso IghodaroF · #118reboundsRecent form
OKCPHXHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-2 this season.
PHX
Team comparison
| OKC | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 67-18 | Record | 46-41 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 112.3 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 111.9 |
| +9.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.3 |
| W3 | Current streak | L3 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 31-10 road | Home / road record | 26-18 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 36-46 (-3.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.