Thunder vs Suns prediction NBA · Sunday, January 4
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (20-14) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (30-5) on Sunday, January 4 at 8:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 105 – Suns 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 78% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Suns are 11-5 at home and the Thunder are 13-3 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Suns and 6-4 for the Thunder (current streaks: Suns W1, Thunder W4).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Suns 110 – 119 Thunder, a margin of about 9.5 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+0.6 vs +12.4 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.9 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.3 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCPHX
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #225pts / game
Jalen WilliamsG · #87assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #79reboundsSuns
Jordan GoodwinG · #2326pts / game
Devin BookerG · #159assists
Ryan DunnF · #08reboundsRecent form
OKCPHXHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-2 this season.
PHX
Team comparison
| OKC | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 30-5 | Record | 20-14 |
| 121.9 | Points scored / game | 115.0 |
| 107.3 | Points allowed / game | 114.2 |
| +12.4 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.6 |
| W4 | Current streak | W1 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 13-3 road | Home / road record | 11-5 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 36-46 (-3.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.