Thunder vs Suns prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 11
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (32-22) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (41-13) on Wednesday, February 11 at 9:00 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 136 – Suns 109. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 75% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Suns are 18-9 at home and the Thunder are 19-7 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Suns and 5-5 for the Thunder (current streaks: Suns W1, Thunder W1).
The analysis Model
The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Suns 109 – 117 Thunder, a margin of about 8.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Suns played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+1.1 vs +10.3 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (120.0 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.9 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCPHX
Top performers
Thunder
Jalen WilliamsG · #828pts / game
Isaiah HartensteinC · #556assists
Kenrich WilliamsG · #346reboundsSuns
Dillon BrooksF · #323pts / game
Jamaree BouyeaG · #176assists
Khaman MaluachC · #106reboundsRecent form
OKCPHXHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-2 this season.
PHX
Team comparison
| OKC | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 41-13 | Record | 32-22 |
| 120.0 | Points scored / game | 113.7 |
| 107.9 | Points allowed / game | 112.3 |
| +10.3 | Adjusted margin / game | +1.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | W1 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 5-5 |
| 19-7 road | Home / road record | 18-9 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 36-46 (-3.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.