Thunder vs Suns prediction NBA · Saturday, April 25
At a glance
The Phoenix Suns (46-40) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (66-18) on Saturday, April 25 at 3:30 PM ET at Mortgage Matchup Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 121 – Suns 109. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 72% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Suns are 26-17 at home and the Thunder are 30-10 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Suns and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Suns L2, Thunder W2).
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Suns 109 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 7.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+0.4 vs +9.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCPHX
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #242pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assists
Chet HolmgrenC · #77reboundsSuns
Dillon BrooksF · #333pts / game
Devin BookerG · #157assists
Collin GillespieG · #1210reboundsRecent form
OKCPHXHead-to-head
OKC lead 3-2 this season.
PHX
Team comparison
| OKC | PHX | |
|---|---|---|
| 66-18 | Record | 46-40 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 112.3 |
| 107.6 | Points allowed / game | 111.8 |
| +9.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +0.4 |
| W2 | Current streak | L2 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 30-10 road | Home / road record | 26-17 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 36-46 (-3.0) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Suns
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.