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Suns vs Thunder prediction NBA · Wednesday, April 22

FinalPaycom Center · ESPN
Phoenix Suns
Phoenix Suns
45-37 · away
Final score
107-120
Projected: 107-119
Oklahoma City Thunder
Oklahoma City Thunder
64-18 · home
18% win PHXwin OKC 82%
FavoriteOKC
Projected margin11.6
Projected total225
ConfidenceHigh

At a glance

The Oklahoma City Thunder (65-18) host the Phoenix Suns (46-39) on Wednesday, April 22 at 9:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Suns 107 – Thunder 120. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 82% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Thunder are 35-8 at home and the Suns are 20-22 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Thunder and 4-6 for the Suns (current streaks: Thunder W1, Suns L1).

The analysis Model

The Thunder start with a clear edge. The model projects Thunder 119 – 107 Suns, a margin of about 11.6 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 225 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+9.9 vs +0.5 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Suns need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Thunder's offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
  • The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.6 pts/game).

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Thunder
Team strength (adjusted point differential)OKC +9.9 / PHX +0.5 per game
+9.3
Home-court advantageThunder at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Thunder
+11.6

Scenarios

Thunder win by 10+
55%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
21%
Suns win by 10+
4%

Stat comparison Current season

PHXOKC
112.4
Points scored / game
119.2
111.8
Points allowed / game
107.6
45.6 %
Field goal %
44.0 %
31.9 %
3-point %
30.9 %
39.7
3-pointers attempted / game
32.4
73.9 %
Free throw %
86.4 %
39.7
Rebounds / game
46.0
25.3
Assists / game
22.0
8.7
Steals / game
8.4
5.3
Blocks / game
6.8
14.0
Turnovers / game
13.6

Top performers

Suns
Dillon BrooksF · #330pts / game
Collin GillespieG · #126assists
Royce O'NealeF · #009rebounds
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #237pts / game
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #29assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5510rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
PHX
No games played yet.
OKC
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

OKC lead 3-2 this season.

Nov 28PHX119 - 123OKCDec 10PHX89 - 138OKCJan 4OKC105 - 108PHXFeb 11OKC136 - 109PHXApr 12PHX135 - 103OKC

Team comparison

PHXOKC
46-39Record65-18
112.4Points scored / game119.2
111.8Points allowed / game107.6
+0.5Adjusted margin / game+9.9
L1Current streakW1
4-6Last 10 games8-2
20-22 roadHome / road record35-8 home
36-46 (-3.0)Last season68-14 (+12.9)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

Phoenix Suns Injury report Suns

No injuries reported.

Oklahoma City Thunder Injury report Thunder

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.