Pelicans vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Tuesday, April 6
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (2-2) host the New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) on Tuesday, April 6 at 9:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 75% chance to win and projects a 112-120 score (Pelicans – Nuggets), about 232 total points. This season, the Nuggets are 1-1 at home and the Pelicans are 0-2 on the road. Since the start of the season: 2-2 for the Nuggets and 0-4 for the Pelicans (current streaks: Nuggets W1, Pelicans L4). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 25% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Yves Missi (Pelicans), Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets) and Julian Strawther (Nuggets). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Nuggets start with a clear edge. The model projects Nuggets 120 – 112 Pelicans, a margin of about 8.2 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (+2.6 vs -4.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
NODEN
Players to watch
Pelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsRecent form
NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91Head-to-head
DEN lead 2-0 this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| NO | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-4 | Record | 2-2 |
| 115.7 | Points scored / game | 119.2 |
| 120.5 | Points allowed / game | 116.2 |
| -4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.6 |
| L4 | Current streak | W1 |
| 0-4 | Last 10 games | 2-2 |
| 0-2 road | Home / road record | 1-1 home |
| 26-56 (-4.5) | Last season | 54-28 (+5.2) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Pelicans
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.