Nuggets vs Pelicans prediction NBA · Saturday, November 14
At a glance
The New Orleans Pelicans (0-4) host the Denver Nuggets (2-2) on Saturday, November 14 at 7:00 PM ET at Smoothie King Center in NBA action. The Basketlog model gives the Nuggets a 61% chance to win and projects a 118-114 score (Nuggets – Pelicans), about 232 total points. This season, the Pelicans are 0-2 at home and the Nuggets are 1-1 on the road. Since the start of the season: 0-4 for the Pelicans and 2-2 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Pelicans L4, Nuggets W1). A close game (margin of 5 points or fewer) happens in only 30% of cases according to the model. Fatigue: the Pelicans played the night before (back-to-back). Reported injuries: Cameron Johnson (Nuggets), Spencer Jones (Nuggets), Alpha Diallo (Nuggets), Julian Strawther (Nuggets) and Yves Missi (Pelicans). Prediction confidence: medium.
The analysis Model
The Nuggets are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Pelicans 114 – 118 Nuggets, a margin of about 3.6 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 232 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Pelicans played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. The Pelicans will be without Yves Missi. The Nuggets will be without Cameron Johnson or Spencer Jones (and 2 others). Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The overall strength gap (-4.1 vs +2.6 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Pelicans need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (119.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Nuggets' defense allows clearly fewer points (116.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENNO
Players to watch
Nuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2722.5pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #159.0assistsNikola JokicC · #1510.5reboundsPelicans
Zion WilliamsonF · #121.8pts / game
Dejounte MurrayG · #56.0assists
Derik QueenC · #229.2reboundsRecent form
DEN
121-106L
96-84W
141-135 OTL
134-114W104-91NO
107-106L
123-120L
120-119L
141-135 OTL104-91Head-to-head
DEN lead 2-0 this season.
Second opinion
Our model compared with ESPN's public model (BPI). When they agree, the prediction is more solid.
✓ Both models pick the same favorite.
Team comparison
| DEN | NO | |
|---|---|---|
| 2-2 | Record | 0-4 |
| 119.2 | Points scored / game | 115.7 |
| 116.2 | Points allowed / game | 120.5 |
| +2.6 | Adjusted margin / game | -4.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L4 |
| 2-2 | Last 10 games | 0-4 |
| 1-1 road | Home / road record | 0-2 home |
| 54-28 (+5.2) | Last season | 26-56 (-4.5) |
| No | Played yesterday | Yes |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Pelicans
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.