Nuggets vs Grizzlies prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 18
At a glance
The Memphis Grizzlies (23-44) host the Denver Nuggets (42-27) on Wednesday, March 18 at 8:30 PM ET at FedExForum in NBA action. Final score: Nuggets 118 – Grizzlies 125. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 54% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Grizzlies are 12-20 at home and the Nuggets are 23-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 2-8 for the Grizzlies and 5-5 for the Nuggets (current streaks: Grizzlies L8, Nuggets W1).
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Grizzlies 117 – 118 Nuggets, a margin of about 1.3 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 235 points. Expect a fast-paced, high-scoring game. The Nuggets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (-1.6 vs +3.7 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Grizzlies need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (120.7 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
DENMEM
Top performers
Nuggets
Nikola JokicC · #1529pts / game
Jamal MurrayG · #2712assistsNikola JokicC · #1514reboundsGrizzlies
Ty JeromeG · #221pts / gameTy JeromeG · #29assistsTy JeromeG · #29reboundsRecent form
DENMEMHead-to-head
DEN lead 4-1 this season.
DEN
Team comparison
| DEN | MEM | |
|---|---|---|
| 42-27 | Record | 23-44 |
| 120.7 | Points scored / game | 116.5 |
| 116.4 | Points allowed / game | 118.4 |
| +3.7 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.6 |
| W1 | Current streak | L8 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 2-8 |
| 23-14 road | Home / road record | 12-20 home |
| 50-32 (+3.9) | Last season | 48-34 (+4.9) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Nuggets
Injury report Grizzlies
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.