Match analysisToday's gamesNBA standingsEuroLeagueTrack record
← Back

Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Sunday, January 25

FinalTarget Center · NBA TV, FanDuel SN North, NBC Sports BA
37% win GSwin MIN 63%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin4.1
Projected total230
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (27-18) host the Golden State Warriors (25-21) on Sunday, January 25 at 5:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 111 – Timberwolves 85. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Timberwolves are 15-7 at home and the Warriors are 8-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 5-5 for the Timberwolves and 6-4 for the Warriors (current streaks: Timberwolves L4, Warriors L2).

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 117 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 230 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves and the Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +4.2 / GS +2.4 per game
+1.8
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+4.1

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Warriors win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

GSMIN
116.2
Points scored / game
118.8
113.4
Points allowed / game
113.9
45.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
36.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
82.2 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
51.6
25.6
Assists / game
27.0
9.6
Steals / game
9.2
3.8
Blocks / game
4.4
16.8
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Warriors
Stephen CurryG · #3026pts / game
Stephen CurryG · #307assists
Moses MoodyG · #48rebounds
Timberwolves
Anthony EdwardsG · #532pts / game
Julius RandleF · #306assists
Anthony EdwardsG · #511rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSMIN
25-21Record27-18
116.2Points scored / game118.8
113.4Points allowed / game113.9
+2.4Adjusted margin / game+4.2
L2Current streakL4
6-4Last 10 games5-5
8-14 roadHome / road record15-7 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
YesPlayed yesterdayYes

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.