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Warriors vs Timberwolves prediction NBA · Monday, January 26

FinalTarget Center · Peacock
40% win GSwin MIN 60%
FavoriteMIN
Projected margin3.3
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Minnesota Timberwolves (27-19) host the Golden State Warriors (26-21) on Monday, January 26 at 9:30 PM ET at Target Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 83 – Timberwolves 108. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Timberwolves a 60% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Timberwolves are 15-8 at home and the Warriors are 9-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Timberwolves and 7-3 for the Warriors (current streaks: Timberwolves L5, Warriors W1).

The analysis Model

The Timberwolves are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Timberwolves 116 – 113 Warriors, a margin of about 3.3 points in favor of the Timberwolves and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Timberwolves and the Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Timberwolves
Team strength (adjusted point differential)MIN +3.7 / GS +2.7 per game
+1.0
Home-court advantageTimberwolves at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Timberwolves
+3.3

Scenarios

Timberwolves win by 10+
30%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Warriors win by 10+
14%

Stat comparison Current season

GSMIN
116.1
Points scored / game
118.2
112.9
Points allowed / game
113.8
45.0 %
Field goal %
47.3 %
36.9 %
3-point %
38.4 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
40.6
82.2 %
Free throw %
62.7 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
51.6
25.6
Assists / game
27.0
9.6
Steals / game
9.2
3.8
Blocks / game
4.4
16.8
Turnovers / game
16.2

Top performers

Warriors
Quinten PostC · #4113pts / game
Pat SpencerG · #616assists
Gui SantosF · #1510rebounds
Timberwolves
Julius RandleF · #3018pts / game
Donte DiVincenzoG · #08assists
Rudy GobertC · #2717rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
MIN
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSMIN
26-21Record27-19
116.1Points scored / game118.2
112.9Points allowed / game113.8
+2.7Adjusted margin / game+3.7
W1Current streakL5
7-3Last 10 games4-6
9-14 roadHome / road record15-8 home
48-34 (+3.3)Last season49-33 (+5.0)
YesPlayed yesterdayYes

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Minnesota Timberwolves Injury report Timberwolves

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.