Heat vs Hawks prediction NBA · Monday, October 13
At a glance
The Atlanta Hawks host the Miami Heat on Monday, October 13 at 6:00 PM ET at State Farm Arena in NBA action. Final score: Heat 118 – Hawks 119. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Hawks a 58% chance to win: prediction correct.
The analysis Model
Close to a coin flip: nothing really sets either side apart. The model projects Hawks 115 – 113 Heat, a margin of about 2.5 points in favor of the Hawks and a total around 228 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Heat played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.
- The Heat need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Hawks' offense (118.2 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Heat's defense allows clearly fewer points (110.0 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
MIAATL
Top performers
Heat
Jaime Jaquez Jr.F · #2417pts / gameJaime Jaquez Jr.F · #243assists
Kel'el WareC · #911reboundsHawks
Jacob ToppinF · #026pts / gameJacob ToppinF · #05assists
Charles BasseyC · #2817reboundsRecent form
MIAATLHead-to-head
MIA lead 3-1 this season.
MIA
Team comparison
| MIA | ATL | |
|---|---|---|
| 0-5 | Record | 2-1 |
| 110.6 | Points scored / game | 118.2 |
| 110.0 | Points allowed / game | 119.3 |
| +0.5 | Adjusted margin / game | -1.0 |
| – | Current streak | – |
| – | Last 10 games | – |
| – | Home / road record | – |
| 37-45 (+0.6) | Last season | 40-42 (-1.1) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Heat
Injury report Hawks
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.