Rockets vs Nuggets prediction NBA · Wednesday, March 11
At a glance
The Denver Nuggets (39-26) host the Houston Rockets (40-24) on Wednesday, March 11 at 10:00 PM ET at Ball Arena in NBA action. Final score: Rockets 93 – Nuggets 129. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Nuggets a 59% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Nuggets are 17-13 at home and the Rockets are 18-16 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 4-6 for the Nuggets and 6-4 for the Rockets (current streaks: Nuggets L2, Rockets W1).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Nuggets, but the Rockets have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Nuggets 116 – 113 Rockets, a margin of about 2.9 points in favor of the Nuggets and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Rockets played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The Rockets need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Nuggets' offense (120.3 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Rockets' defense allows clearly fewer points (109.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
HOUDEN
Top performers
Rockets
Amen ThompsonG · #116pts / game
Kevin DurantF · #75assists
Tari EasonF · #178reboundsNuggets
Jamal MurrayG · #2730pts / game
Nikola JokicC · #1513assistsNikola JokicC · #1512reboundsRecent form
HOUDENHead-to-head
DEN lead 3-1 this season.
DEN
Team comparison
| HOU | DEN | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-24 | Record | 39-26 |
| 114.5 | Points scored / game | 120.3 |
| 109.7 | Points allowed / game | 116.7 |
| +4.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +3.1 |
| W1 | Current streak | L2 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 18-16 road | Home / road record | 17-13 home |
| 52-30 (+4.5) | Last season | 50-32 (+3.9) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Rockets
Injury report Nuggets
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.