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Knicks vs Raptors prediction NBA · Tuesday, March 3

FinalScotiabank Arena · MSG, NBA League Pass, DAZN (MSG), Sportsnet
New York Knicks
New York Knicks
40-22 · away
Final score
111-95
Projected: 115-113
Toronto Raptors
Toronto Raptors
35-26 · home
56% win NYwin TOR 44%
FavoriteNY
Projected margin1.9
Projected total227
ConfidenceLow

At a glance

The Toronto Raptors (35-25) host the New York Knicks (40-22) on Tuesday, March 3 at 7:30 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena in NBA action. Final score: Knicks 111 – Raptors 95. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Knicks a 56% chance to win: prediction correct. This season, the Raptors are 16-15 at home and the Knicks are 16-14 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Raptors and 6-4 for the Knicks (current streaks: Raptors W1, Knicks W2).

The analysis Model

A wide-open game: the model barely separates the two teams. The model projects Raptors 113 – 115 Knicks, a margin of about 1.9 points in favor of the Knicks and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.

  • The overall strength gap (+0.8 vs +5.0 pts/game) is the main factor.
  • The Raptors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
  • The Knicks' offense (117.1 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Raptors
Team strength (adjusted point differential)TOR +0.8 / NY +5.0 per game
-4.2
Home-court advantageRaptors at home
+2.3
Expected marginfor Raptors
-1.9

Scenarios

Raptors win by 10+
17%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
31%
Knicks win by 10+
26%

Stat comparison Current season

NYTOR
117.1
Points scored / game
113.4
111.2
Points allowed / game
112.5
42.2 %
Field goal %
44.2 %
35.9 %
3-point %
30.4 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
34.5
75.8 %
Free throw %
79.0 %
48.2
Rebounds / game
45.8
26.8
Assists / game
27.3
7.2
Steals / game
14.3
4.4
Blocks / game
5.5
14.8
Turnovers / game
14.0

Top performers

Knicks
Jalen BrunsonG · #1126pts / game
Jalen BrunsonG · #1110assists
Karl-Anthony TownsC · #3212rebounds
Raptors
Brandon IngramF · #731pts / game
Immanuel QuickleyG · #512assists
Jakob PoeltlC · #197rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
NY
No games played yet.
TOR
No games played yet.

Head-to-head

NY lead 5-0 this season.

Nov 30TOR94 - 116NYDec 9NY117 - 101TORJan 28NY119 - 92TORMar 3NY111 - 95TORApr 10TOR95 - 112NY

Team comparison

NYTOR
40-22Record35-25
117.1Points scored / game113.4
111.2Points allowed / game112.5
+5.0Adjusted margin / game+0.8
W2Current streakW1
6-4Last 10 games6-4
16-14 roadHome / road record16-15 home
51-31 (+4.1)Last season30-52 (-4.3)
NoPlayed yesterdayNo

New York Knicks Injury report Knicks

No injuries reported.

Toronto Raptors Injury report Raptors

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.