Thunder vs Spurs prediction NBA · Wednesday, February 4
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (33-17) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (40-11) on Wednesday, February 4 at 9:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 106 – Spurs 116. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 63% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Spurs are 17-6 at home and the Thunder are 18-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 6-4 for the Spurs and 6-4 for the Thunder (current streaks: Spurs W1, Thunder W2).
The analysis Model
Slight edge to the Thunder, but the Spurs have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Spurs 112 – 116 Thunder, a margin of about 4.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 227 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+2.8 vs +10.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (120.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.7 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCSA
Top performers
Thunder
Kenrich WilliamsG · #3425pts / game
Aaron WigginsG · #26assists
Jaylin WilliamsF · #612reboundsSpurs
Keldon JohnsonF · #325pts / game
De'Aaron FoxG · #410assists
Luke KornetC · #715reboundsRecent form
OKCSAHead-to-head
SA lead 4-1 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| OKC | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 40-11 | Record | 33-17 |
| 120.5 | Points scored / game | 116.3 |
| 107.7 | Points allowed / game | 113.0 |
| +10.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.8 |
| W2 | Current streak | W1 |
| 6-4 | Last 10 games | 6-4 |
| 18-6 road | Home / road record | 17-6 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.