Spurs vs Thunder prediction NBA · Thursday, December 25
At a glance
The Oklahoma City Thunder (26-4) host the San Antonio Spurs (22-8) on Thursday, December 25 at 2:30 PM ET at Paycom Center in NBA action. Final score: Spurs 117 – Thunder 102. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 82% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Thunder are 14-1 at home and the Spurs are 11-6 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 7-3 for the Thunder and 8-2 for the Spurs (current streaks: Thunder L1, Spurs W4).
The analysis Model
On paper, the Thunder dominate this matchup. The model projects Thunder 121 – 110 Spurs, a margin of about 11.4 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 231 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace.
- The overall strength gap (+12.2 vs +3.1 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.5 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (107.2 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
SAOKC
Top performers
Spurs
De'Aaron FoxG · #429pts / game
Stephon CastleG · #57assists
Victor WembanyamaF · #111reboundsThunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #222pts / game
Jalen WilliamsG · #86assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5512reboundsRecent form
SAOKCHead-to-head
SA lead 4-1 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| SA | OKC | |
|---|---|---|
| 22-8 | Record | 26-4 |
| 118.4 | Points scored / game | 121.5 |
| 114.7 | Points allowed / game | 107.2 |
| +3.1 | Adjusted margin / game | +12.2 |
| W4 | Current streak | L1 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 11-6 road | Home / road record | 14-1 home |
| 34-48 (-2.8) | Last season | 68-14 (+12.9) |
| No | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Spurs
Injury report Thunder
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.