Thunder vs Spurs prediction NBA · Tuesday, December 23
At a glance
The San Antonio Spurs (21-8) host the Oklahoma City Thunder (26-3) on Tuesday, December 23 at 8:30 PM ET at Frost Bank Center in NBA action. Final score: Thunder 110 – Spurs 130. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Thunder a 69% chance to win: prediction missed. This season, the Spurs are 10-2 at home and the Thunder are 12-2 on the road. Over the last 10 games: 8-2 for the Spurs and 8-2 for the Thunder (current streaks: Spurs W3, Thunder W1).
The analysis Model
The Thunder are favored, but the gap isn't huge. The model projects Spurs 111 – 118 Thunder, a margin of about 6.2 points in favor of the Thunder and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Thunder played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter.
- The overall strength gap (+2.8 vs +12.9 pts/game) is the main factor.
- The Spurs need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.
- The Thunder's offense (121.8 pts/game) is the more productive of the two.
- The Thunder's defense allows clearly fewer points (106.6 pts/game).
What tips the balance
Scenarios
Stat comparison Current season
OKCSA
Top performers
Thunder
Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #233pts / gameShai Gilgeous-AlexanderG · #28assists
Isaiah HartensteinC · #5512reboundsSpurs
Keldon JohnsonF · #325pts / game
Dylan HarperG · #210assists
Julian ChampagnieF · #3010reboundsRecent form
OKCSAHead-to-head
SA lead 4-1 this season.
SA
Team comparison
| OKC | SA | |
|---|---|---|
| 26-3 | Record | 21-8 |
| 121.8 | Points scored / game | 118.1 |
| 106.6 | Points allowed / game | 114.8 |
| +12.9 | Adjusted margin / game | +2.8 |
| W1 | Current streak | W3 |
| 8-2 | Last 10 games | 8-2 |
| 12-2 road | Home / road record | 10-2 home |
| 68-14 (+12.9) | Last season | 34-48 (-2.8) |
| Yes | Played yesterday | No |
Injury report Thunder
Injury report Spurs
Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.