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Warriors vs Trail Blazers prediction NBA · Wednesday, October 7

FinalModa Center · NBA TV, KUNP 16, BlazerVision
37% win GSwin POR 63%
FavoritePOR
Projected margin4.1
Projected total229
ConfidenceMedium

At a glance

The Portland Trail Blazers host the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday, October 7 at 10:00 PM ET at Moda Center in NBA action. Final score: Warriors 118 – Trail Blazers 123. Before tip-off, the Basketlog model gave the Trail Blazers a 63% chance to win: prediction correct.

The analysis Model

Slight edge to the Trail Blazers, but the Warriors have what it takes to keep it close. The model projects Trail Blazers 117 – 112 Warriors, a margin of about 4.1 points in favor of the Trail Blazers and a total around 229 points. Expect a game at a standard NBA pace. The Warriors played yesterday: fatigue often shows in the fourth quarter. Early season: the numbers still lean heavily on last season, so confidence stays cautious.

  • The Warriors need to win the pace battle to stay in the game.

What tips the balance

In points, positive = edge Trail Blazers
Team strength (adjusted point differential)POR -0.2 / GS -0.5 per game
+0.2
Home-court advantageTrail Blazers at home
+2.3
Back-to-backWarriors played yesterday
+1.6
Expected marginfor Trail Blazers
+4.1

Scenarios

Trail Blazers win by 10+
32%
Close game (margin ≤ 5)
30%
Warriors win by 10+
13%

Stat comparison Current season

GSPOR
114.6
Points scored / game
115.5
115.2
Points allowed / game
115.8
45.0 %
Field goal %
51.1 %
36.9 %
3-point %
38.9 %
39.0
3-pointers attempted / game
43.7
82.2 %
Free throw %
70.8 %
43.8
Rebounds / game
46.3
25.6
Assists / game
30.7
9.6
Steals / game
8.3
3.8
Blocks / game
2.7
16.8
Turnovers / game
13.3

Top performers

Warriors
Miles KellyG · #2624pts / game
Dalen TerryG · #219assists
Dalen TerryG · #218rebounds
Trail Blazers
Deni AvdijaF · #823pts / game
Ja MorantG · #15assists
Donovan ClinganC · #2310rebounds

Recent form

Last 5 games (including preseason early in the season)
GS
No games played yet.
POR
No games played yet.

Team comparison

GSPOR
1-2Record1-0
114.6Points scored / game115.5
115.2Points allowed / game115.8
-0.5Adjusted margin / game-0.2
–Current streak–
–Last 10 games–
–Home / road record–
37-45 (-0.6)Last season42-40 (-0.3)
YesPlayed yesterdayNo

Golden State Warriors Injury report Warriors

No injuries reported.

Portland Trail Blazers Injury report Trail Blazers

No injuries reported.

Probabilities estimated by the Basketlog model from available public data; early in the season they rely heavily on last season. They are neither a certainty nor betting advice.